Frisco, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

555
FXUS64 KFWD 112330
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
630 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures are expected this week with highs in
  the 90s.

- Low storm chances will continue for parts of North and Central
  Texas through Wednesday, and will then linger across parts of
  eastern Central Texas through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/
/Today through Tuesday afternoon/

Isolated showers and storms are expected around the periphery of our
coverage area this afternoon as our area remains wedged between a
weak upper level disturbance moving through East Texas and an upper
level trough to our northwest. Severe weather is not expected but we
cannot completely rule out a storm briefly approaching severe
limits. Lightning and gusty downburst winds will be the main
hazards, especially with stronger storms. Storms will likely be slow
moving, but flooding is not a main concern due to the isolated and
small areal coverage of the storms. Highs this afternoon will
largely be in the mid 90s.

Our attention tonight turns to the northwest where another complex
of storms is expected to move southeast from the Texas Panhandle and
Oklahoma. Hi-res models are inconsistent and indecisive on if
this complex will reach North Texas and when, but generally
indicate the complex will be weakening if and when it reaches
North Texas, and the most likely timing is after 4 am into
sunrise. There are hints in several models that this complex will
push or leave a weak boundary somewhere across the area tomorrow
morning, and that boundary may become a focus for afternoon
convection. Regardless of the boundary, scattered showers and
storms are more likely Tuesday afternoon as the upper level trough
approaches the region and assimilates the upper level disturbance
over East Texas. Not everyone will see rain tomorrow, but those
that do could receive a quick 1/3 - 1/2 inch of rain. Gusty
downburst winds and lightning will again be the main hazards with
any stronger storms.

JLDunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 114 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/
/Tuesday night through Sunday night/

A broad weakness in the mid-level height field will persist over
the Southern Plains Tuesday night as the remnants of the westward-
drifting upper low continues to merge into the weak trough
embedded within the westerlies. Weak ascent coupled with residual
mesoscale boundaries from the day`s convection will likely
sustain isolated showers and thunderstorms into the evening. The
majority of this activity should fade with the loss of heating,
though a few showers could persist through midnight, particularly
in adjacent areas along the Red River.

Though the consolidated upper trough will begin slowly lifting
northeast on Wednesday, lingering subtle height falls and weak
ascent will combine with daytime heating and a moist boundary
layer to yield another round of isolated to scattered convection.
The main window for this activity will likely be between 2-8 PM.
Similar to Tuesday, lightning and gusty winds will be the main
hazards with any stronger storms.

The residual troughing over the Southern Plains is expected to
shift northeast on Thursday with low afternoon rain chances
confined mainly to parts of Central and Southeast Texas including
the Brazos Valley. Subsidence will gradually increase as a Gulf
Coast ridge begins to build westward, bringing a slow warming
trend late week. Ensemble guidance continues to disagree on the
ridge`s eventual amplitude and westward extend, but the current
consensus supports highs returning to the upper 90s with a few
spots nearing 100 degrees this weekend. Any lingering convection
will be limited to our far eastern or southeastern counties along
the periphery of the ridge, with most of the area trending hotter
and drier by the end of the period.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Recent short term guidance has come into better alignment
regarding upstream convective trends during the next 12 hours.
The general consensus is that ongoing convection in
south/central OK and northwestern TX will advance southward along
one or more outflow boundaries tonight, likely resulting in a NW
or N wind shift for most D10 airports as well as low chances for
VCSH/VCTS around sunrise tomorrow. These conditions have been
introduced at 09z with fairly low confidence in timing. Convective
coverage and intensity along these outflows remains quite
uncertain, and it`s possible that most TSRA activity will
dissipate prior to reaching the D10 TAF sites. While a light
northerly wind could persist through midday tomorrow, southerly
winds are likely to resume in the afternoon, with renewed chances
for scattered thunderstorms across D10 after ~22z. VCTS has been
included at the end of the current valid TAF period to account for
this potential. Waco will likely remain removed from convective
impacts through the forecast period, although wind shifts due to
outflows could briefly impact the airfield.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  96  78  95  78 /  10  30  10  30  10
Waco                75  96  76  95  76 /   5  20  10  30  10
Paris               73  94  73  93  73 /  20  20  10  30  10
Denton              74  96  74  95  74 /  10  30  20  30  10
McKinney            74  96  75  95  75 /  10  30  10  30  10
Dallas              77  98  78  96  78 /  10  30  10  30  10
Terrell             74  96  75  95  75 /  10  20   5  30  10
Corsicana           76  96  77  97  77 /   5  20   5  30   5
Temple              74  96  74  96  75 /   5  20  10  30  10
Mineral Wells       72  96  73  96  72 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$